Critical metals have been stealing the spotlight lately, as governments race to lock down rare earths, nuclear fuel, and other “can’t‑build‑defense‑or‑EVs‑without‑them” materials. Today lines up nicely: MP Materials, Energy Fuels, and Lynas Rare Earths are all in focus, giving a clean read on where this trade might head over the next quarter.[1][2][3]
Wall Street’s three‑stock stress test for the critical‑metals bull case
On one level, this is just another earnings day. On another, it is a live stress test of the critical‑metals bull case across three different links in the supply chain. MP Materials sits in the U.S. rare‑earths and magnet lane, Energy Fuels bridges uranium and rare‑earths, and Lynas is the flagship non‑China producer of separated NdPr and other rare earths.[1][2][3][4] Analysts are trying to decide whether we are seeing the early innings of a new up‑cycle for these strategic materials, or simply slogging through a choppy patch where cost inflation, uneven pricing, and execution risk keep a lid on valuations.[5][6]
MP Materials (MP): Can it finally flip the profit switch?
MP reports Q4 2025 after the close, and the expectations story matters almost as much as the actual numbers.[1][6] The Zacks equity research team is looking for roughly two to four cents in earnings per share on around fifty‑nine to sixty million dollars of revenue, which would be slightly down year over year on the top line but a meaningful move back toward profitability after recent losses.[6][7] A recent GuruFocus piece frames MP as evolving from a simple rare‑earths miner into a “strategic infrastructure supplier” thanks to its magnet strategy and backing from U.S. national‑security policy, while still flagging negative recent margins and heavy start‑up spending as the big overhangs.[8]
In the background, a note citing the Goldman Sachs analyst team maintains a Buy rating and a price target in the high‑seventy‑dollar area, on the view that successful magnet ramp‑up plus execution on its Pentagon contract should earn MP a higher multiple over time.[8] Zacks more or less captures tonight’s setup as earnings up, revenue down, with the warning that shipping disruptions and cost pressure could make the quarter look noisy even if the direction of travel is better than the recent past.[6][7]
Energy Fuels (UUUU): Small loss, big optionality
Energy Fuels is also on deck with Q4 2025, and no one is expecting fireworks in the headline earnings number.[2] Zacks’ metals and mining team is modeling roughly twenty‑seven million dollars of revenue, down by about a third from the prior year, and a loss of around seven cents per share, which would still be a solid improvement from the nineteen‑cent loss in the same quarter last year.[2] In their preview, they lean hard on the idea that this is a transition quarter, where the shape of the uranium and rare‑earth contracting story matters more than whether reported EPS is a penny better or worse than consensus.[2]
In broader sector commentary, SP Angel has described Energy Fuels as a bellwether for Western uranium optionality and suggested that clearer multi‑year guidance on sales volumes and pricing could help unlock a re‑rating if management is willing to be more specific.[4] Put differently, the headline is almost certainly going to say “still loss‑making,” but the real signal for the stock is whether tonight’s call gives investors a cleaner line of sight into how uranium contracts, rare‑earth monetization, and 2026–2027 cash flow might look in a tighter market.[2][4]
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC / LYSCF): Big profit jump, but not perfect
Lynas has already dropped its half‑year FY26 numbers, and they are strong enough to remind everyone why this is the go‑to non‑China rare‑earths name, even though the result did not tick every box for the most bullish expectations.[3][9][10] Reporting on the result, The Motley Fool Australia highlights revenue of about four hundred thirteen point seven million Australian dollars, net profit of eighty point two million Australian dollars versus just five point nine million a year earlier, and EBITDA of one hundred fifty‑two point four million Australian dollars, calling it a standout half as the company’s growth strategy starts to kick in.[9]
Reuters notes that this was Lynas’s best first‑half profit in three years, but also points out that it came in below consensus profit estimates of roughly ninety‑one point eight million Australian dollars, which helped cap the immediate share‑price reaction.[10] A Bloomberg wrap leans into the same nuance: earnings have clearly surged on higher volumes and better rare‑earth pricing, yet profit still fell short of what analysts had penciled in, which tells you how high the bar had become.[11] Across these pieces, the consistent message is that Lynas now sits on more than a billion Australian dollars in cash, has expanded capacity, and remains the only fully integrated producer of separated light and heavy rare earths outside China, keeping it firmly at the center of any conversation about defense and EV supply‑chain security.[9][10][11]
Why today could set the tone for the next quarter
Step back and the narrative is fairly clear. If MP can show a credible path to consistent profitability and magnet revenue growth, it starts to look less like a speculative miner and more like a strategic components supplier that deserves a better multiple.[6][8] If Energy Fuels combines a smaller‑than‑feared loss with better colour on uranium and rare‑earths contracting, investors can keep treating it as a leveraged call option on Western nuclear and critical‑minerals policy rather than just another small‑cap producer.[2][4] If the market looks past Lynas’s “beat on growth but miss on expectations” dynamic and refocuses on pricing, cash, and its long‑term expansion plan, rare earths can stay anchored as a core part of the critical‑minerals theme instead of a fleeting trade.[9][10][11]
Taken together, what MP Materials, Energy Fuels, and Lynas Rare Earths report—and how the market reacts—could dictate a bullish or bearish cycle for critical metals over the next quarter.[1][2][3]